4 years ago
The states that matter in deciding the US Elections
While the national picture looks fairly rosy for Biden – and a popular vote win of over seven points would almost guarantee victory in the Electoral College – on a state-by-state level Trump remains competitive in several battlegrounds.
All major polling models give Biden a significantly higher chance of winning the popular vote than winning the Electoral College, where the incumbent has an in-built advantage because several swing states are more Republican-leaning than the country. It remains possible that, as in 2016, Trump could lose the popular vote by a significant margin but still win the presidency.
Nevertheless, the current state of play in the swing states suggests Biden is in a strong position.
In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the Blue Wall states narrowly won by Trump in 2016, the Democrat retains leads of 6.4, 5.3 and 6.9 points respectively according to CGTN analysis, with the former vice president marginally widening his advantage over the past seven days.
Biden also leads narrowly in the other principal swing states – Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota – and is slightly ahead in the traditionally-Republican Georgia.
Polls only provide a snapshot in time and have a margin of error, but the state-by-state surveys suggest if the election were held today Biden could be on course to win 368 Electoral College votes to Trump's 170, with Texas flipping back into the Republican's column over the past week.
Neither campaign has released its September fundraising totals. The latest data from the FEC shows the Trump campaign has raised 471.3 million dollars directly, against 531 million dollars for the Biden campaign. Over 110 million dollars raised by the two campaigns has come from donors in California.
Of the money donated to Trump, 62.8 percent came from donations of less than 200 dollars while 54.3 percent of Biden's came from donations under 200 dollars.
