4 years ago
In an article published in the Lancet, a prestigious British journal, a worldwide study by experts has predicted that in most countries the population would decline by the end of this century.
In the case of Nepal, the current population of 30 million is projected to reach 34.5 million by 2043 and then decline to about half by 2100.
The report states that this is due to the fact that the total fertility rate, i.e. the number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime, is declining due to various reasons such as progress in education and empowerment of women around the world.
At present, the total fertility rate in Nepal is 2.24 percent, but it is now projected to decline to 1.20 percent by 2100.
Until now, Nepal was considered as a young country. As most of the people here are young, it is considered to have a positive impact on labor and employment.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average age in Nepal is around 25 years. At present, people over the age of 65 in Nepal make up only five percent of the total population.
In the context of the current global outbreak of the coronavirus, some understand that it’s effects are less in Nepal as more people are younger. Planners think the country needs to take a leap forward in development at such an opportunity. But this opportunity does not seem to last long.
Dr. Govinda Raj Pokhrel, former vice-chairman of the National Planning Commission, said: "A study conducted by the commission a few years ago found that in the next six years, the number of people over the age of 65 will reach 7 percent - meaning Nepal will be an aging country."
"And 33 years from now, that percentage will reach 14 percent and we will be an old country," he said.
